Polymarket
is
currently
running
a
$7.8
million
betting
option
on
the
number
of
measles
cases
in
the
U.S.
in
2026.
It
runs
a
detailed
analysis
of
the
bets.
It
does
not
measure
the
real
impact
of
those
numbers.
The
human
impact
of
measles
infection
has
both
acute,
subacute,
and
chronic
phases.
One
of
the
most
devastating
forms
of
acute
infection
is
encephalitis,
which
comes
while
the
acute
illness
is
still
present.
It
begins
within
days
of
the
rash,
sometimes
while
the
fever
is
still
present.
The
child
becomes
drowsy,
then
difficult
to
rouse,
and
then
does
not
fully
wake.
Seizures
follow,
and
may
become
continuous,
a
state
called
status
epilepticus.
The
emergent
immediate
treatment
is
heavy
sedation
and
full
support
on
a
ventilator
until
the
brain
swelling
subsides
and
the
seizures
temporarily
abate.
Treatment
takes
many
weeks,
and
multiple
medications
must
be
continued
for
years,
with
all
the
attendant
side
effects.
That
is
the
course
for
the
percentage
who
survive.
Additional
sequelae
include
blindness,
hearing
loss,
neurologic
deficits,
and
a
totally
changed
child.
The
most
common
serious
illnesses
that
accompany
measles
infections
are
pneumonias,
often
leading
to
chronic
lung
scarring,
and
acute
ear
infections
that
carry
the
potential
for
permanent
hearing
loss.
A
child
may
become
dehydrated
from
diarrhea
combined
with
an
inability
to
keep
drinking
fluids,
because
the
mouth
sores
are
too
severe.
The
CDC
puts
the
hospitalization
rate
among
the
unvaccinated
at
one
in
five.
Included
in
the
sequela
of
the
acute
illness
is
the
potential
for
lasting
damage
to
the
immune
system.
The
form
that
this
damage
takes
involves
the
ongoing
elimination
and
destruction
of
the
immune
“memory”
cells
and
the
ability
of
the
immune
system
to
produce
humoral
antibodies.
This
combination
is
the
process
that
“remembers”
past
infections,
and
these
cells
and
proteins
are
crucial
to
an
effective
physiologic
response
the
next
time
the
pathogen
appears.
A
study
in
2019
demonstrated
this,
showing
a
loss
of
between
11-73%
of
the
antibodies
that
the
patients
carried
before
they
were
infected.
If
a
child
later
dies
of
pneumococcal
pneumonia
because
of
this
immune
deficiency,
the
death
will
never
be
traced
to
the
earlier
measles
infection.
Back
to
Polymarket.
The
criteria
for
winning
is
the
CDC
measles
counter,
based
on
the
numbers
from
January
1
through
December
31,
2026.
The
wagering
options
are
staged
in
ladders.
The
1,000
to
2,000
case
ladders
have
already
closed,
because
we
have
surpassed
that
number.
If
we
read
the
numbers
as
actual
children,
a
count
of
3,000
means
three
cases
of
encephalitis
and
150
pneumonias.
It
means
600
hospitalizations
in
those
who
are
unvaccinated
and
between
three
and
nine
deaths.
The
incidence
of
all
these
illnesses
and
the
consequences
rise
in
proportion
to
the
number
of
reported
cases.
Polymarket
is
doing
nothing
illegal,
even
if
the
basis
for
the
numbers
being
bet
on
is
morally
repugnant.
After
the
acute
and
subacute
phases
have
subsided,
there
is
the
chronic
central
nervous
system
form
of
measles,
termed
subacute
sclerosing
panencephalitis
(SSPE).
It
is
a
rare,
progressive
indolent
disease
that
begins
after
the
acute
illness
passes.
The
virus
remains
hidden
in
the
brain,
causing
ongoing
chronic
inflammation.
This
process
advances
slowly
and
has
its
impact
long
after
the
acute
illness
appears
resolved.
The
average
interval
between
measles
infection
and
the
onset
of
SSPE
is
seven
to
10
years.
The
children
with
this
form
of
the
chronic
disease
will
appear
normal
at
first.
Then
a
teacher
will
notice
that
the
child’s
work
has
fallen
off
or
may
see
the
hallmark
muscle
jerking
called
myoclonus.
As
it
progresses,
the
jerking
evolves
into
whole-body
spasms
that
occur
every
few
seconds,
awake
and
asleep.
Along
with
the
central
nervous
system
manifestations
of
chronic
measles,
there
is
a
peripheral
nervous
system
and
muscular
form
of
the
chronic
infection.
The
child’s
muscles
may
become
chronically
rigid,
which
can
be
associated
with
difficulty
swallowing
and
choking.
It
may
develop
into
complete
mutism.
If
the
brain
infection
and
the
spasms
continue,
the
child
may
become
completely
unresponsive,
unable
to
communicate,
eat,
or
swallow.
There
is
no
treatment,
and
survival
is
very
limited,
with
a
mortality
rate
approaching
100%.
For
the
rare
child
that
does
survive,
it
will
be
in
a
chronic,
severely
compromised
neurologic
state,
requiring
24-hour
medical
care.
According
to
the
CDC’s
estimates,
this
debilitating
form
of
chronic
measles
occurs
in
seven
to
eleven
cases
per
100,000
of
the
reported
infections.
A
2017
paper
in
Clinical
Infectious
Diseases
examined
California
cases,
and
they
reported
a
significantly
higher
risk
in
the
youngest
children:
one
in
1,367
among
those
infected
before
age
five,
and
one
in
609
among
infants
infected
in
the
first
year
of
life.
The
children
who
will
suffer
measles
sequelae,
who
will
face
compromised
immune
systems,
or
who
will
die
of
SSPE
from
the
current
measles
outbreaks
are
alive
now,
in
kindergarten
classrooms.
It
is
impossible
to
know
which
of
them
will
be
affected
by
this
devastating
disease.
They
will
never
appear
on
any
betting
board,
because
no
exchange
keeps
a
ledger
whose
results
come
due
in
2034.
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